Ronald Wilson Reagan

Ronald Wilson Reagan
America's 40th President

Friday, January 5, 2007

My Own Presidential Prospect Ratings

In homage to Chuck Todd's presidential prospect ratings, which he will do weekly throughout 2007, this writer will add to the mix with his own "top 5" from each party.

Democrats
1) Hillary Clinton: In spite of the Obama onslaught, she remains the candidate to beat on the Democratic side. The best staff and biggest money stays aligned with her. Not to mention a certain "man from Hope" who's still the best strategist that party has to offer.

2) Barack Obama: Still basking in his barnstorming tour of New Hampshire, #1 book, and kicking off Monday Night Football, he looks like a formidable opponent for Clinton. But does serving 2 years in the Senate make you qualified for "the job"? Even JFK had 6 in the House and 8 in the Senate when he tossed his hat into the ring in 1960.

3) John Edwards: Either he or Obama will become the anti-Clinton. Edwards' folksy appeal still resonates with some Dems (he polls well consistently in Iowa)- but will voters remember the populist of the '04 primaries, or John Kerry's errand boy from the ill-fated fall campaign?

4) Tom Vilsack: The outgoing Iowa governor was the first out of the box, announcing before Christmas. He's a "centrist" and well-liked, and Mark Warner's bowing out made his candidacy possible. Still, can he raise money? What will his message be? And what about Iowa? If he doesn't win, he's finished. If he does win, he may be finished anyway. My advice: good veep prospect for Hillary or Obama.

5) Joe Biden and Chris Dodd (tie): Both in the same boat. They are considered "elder" statesmen in their party and among the first on nearly every Sunday morning show. But they appear to be getting swallowed in Obama's wake. Still, if Obama or Edwards stumbles early, they could be waiting in the wings.

Republicans
1) John McCain: The front-runner can now prove it by showing his snatching up of many of the best donors in the national party. He's also landing some of the best people (some of whom were on the other side of him in 2000). Still, as Iraq goes, so might his fortunes...

2) Mitt Romney: His official announcement this week, along with Giuliani's bad week (see below) vault the former Bay State governor into second place. Still, many questions remain to be answered about his record and views. And, sadly, the "Mormon" question is out there.

3) Rudy Giuliani: His Honor had a bad week when the story broke that Giuliani's camp lost a 100+ page blueprint for a potential White House run. A source, "sympathetic" with one of Rudy's would-be rivals, turned the dossier into a New York newspaper, who then broke the story. Among the most interesting items in Rudy's black book: an analysis of his personal vulnerabilities and names of key donors to line up. Still, not much was revealed that isn't already known by politicos, so Rudy will recover from this.

4) Newt Gingrich: Speaker Newt is the most intriguing possibility on the Republican side. He has made repeated assertions that he'll run unless someone has the nomination locked up by fall '07. He polls well, spends a lot of time in Iowa and NH, and is planning on launching a online movement sometime this year to focus the upcoming election on ideas. He has proposed a series of Lincoln-Douglas format debates to occur among both side's candidates in early primary states. And Newt could be the conservative alternative for GOPers uneasy about McCain, Romney, and Giuliani. Stay tuned.

5) Sam Brownback: The favorite of many evangelicals. Brownback has the most conservative credentials of any announced candidate thus far, and a good performance in neighboring Iowa (or at the Iowa straw poll for that matter) could bring his effort much needed cash and a sense of legitimacy. If Giuliani did get the GOP nomination, Brownback would be the ideal running mate.

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