"Giuliani Has No Real Chance With GOP Voters . . . or Does He?"

Giuliani Has No Real Chance With GOP Voters . . . or Does He?
By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, March 4, 2007; A01

The 2008 presidential campaign is just weeks old, but already an article of faith within the Republican Party -- the belief that no politician who favors abortion rights and gay rights can win the GOP nomination -- is being challenged by the candidacy of former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.

The man who was named Time magazine's "Person of the Year" for his response to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks is now leading in a slew of national polls. He is testing whether cultural and religious conservatives in the GOP will support a candidate who offers strong leadership on security and terrorism rather than ideological purity on social issues.

"This is the first Republican presidential primary since Sept. 11," said Ed Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee chairman who is neutral in the nominating battle. "Rudy Giuliani is a candidate who can clearly test the proposition that a Republican who is more moderate on social issues can capture the nomination. He's testing it now."

Whit Ayres, a Georgia-based Republican pollster, said he has been struck by the number of conservatives he has encountered who disagree with Giuliani on abortion or gay rights but are still attracted to him as a possible Republican nominee. The issue is whether that appeal can survive a long campaign in which Giuliani's New York record, his position on issues, his three marriages and his complex business dealings will be subjected to withering scrutiny.

"It truly is the question in Republican presidential politics at the moment," Ayres said. "There are a lot of people with a more traditional view who think that his leading in the polls is just a mirage and that he has no real chance. I don't believe that. I think there's more to this than simply name ID. "

Many GOP strategists still question whether Giuliani can survive the scrutiny and develop a message that appeals to voters across the spectrum of Republican conservatism. Based on his speech Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, there are good reasons for doubt. Giuliani highlighted his record as a tax cutter, crime fighter and welfare reformer. But he offered little resembling a traditional conservative agenda for the future, other than saying the United States must remain on offense against terrorism.

The speech won a polite but hardly enthusiastic response from the audience of activists.

Still, the former mayor's decision to show up at a conference that the other leading candidate for the nomination, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), skipped may earn some goodwill with an audience not predisposed to support him.

His strength in recent national polls and some state polls has already prompted many strategists, including some in rival camps, to reexamine their long-held assumptions about a party that is approaching not only its first nomination battle since the terrorist attacks but also the first since the 2006 midterm elections, which put Democrats back into power in Washington. With President Bush's approval ratings still low, Republicans are looking for a winner.

For many months, McCain has been seen as the closest thing there is to a front-runner in the Republican contest. But Giuliani has emerged not only as the popular choice for the GOP nomination but also as the Republican candidate who is currently most highly regarded by the American people -- Republicans, Democrats and independents alike.

The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Giuliani leading McCain 44 percent to 21 percent, with former House speaker Newt Gingrich at 15 percent and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney at 4 percent. A month ago, Giuliani's lead was much narrower: 34 percent to 27 percent. Without Gingrich in the field, the most recent poll showed Giuliani's margin over McCain was 53 percent to 23 percent.

A veteran Republican strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly assess the situation, said he is among those who long believed that a Republican with Giuliani's profile would have no chance. He still believes the former mayor faces significant obstacles but said the odds of Giuliani winning the nomination are not as remote as they once seemed.

He gave three reasons: the absence of a strong, traditional conservative in the GOP field; continuing antipathy among many social and religious conservatives toward McCain; and the prospect of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) becoming the next president.

Giuliani "looks like he can beat Hillary, make the party competitive again in the Northeast, competitive again in California and allow us to keep our strong electoral advantage in the South and Rocky Mountain states," the strategist said.

The former mayor's campaign team believes it has found a credible path to the nomination. Its foundation is a conclusion that while the overwhelming majority of Republicans differ with Giuliani on abortion, gay rights and gun control, a much smaller percentage of GOP primary voters -- perhaps no more than a quarter -- are single-issue voters who would never vote for him because of his views on those issues, a percentage borne out by the latest Post-ABC News poll.

Giuliani's advisers see that as a reason for optimism. They say those findings still leave a significant majority of the party beginning the campaign open to his candidacy, and they think the more he can emphasize his conservatism on issues such as taxes, welfare and crime, as well as his leadership on national security issues, the more voters are likely to back him.

"Rudy Giuliani and Republican voters are going to find a tremendous amount of common ground on a wide variety of issues important to Republican voters," said Mike DuHaime, Giuliani's campaign manager.

That raises the question of what it would say about the Republican Party if Giuliani were to become the nominee. Joe Gaylord, a GOP strategist close to Gingrich, said Giuliani's well-deserved celebrity appeal from his Sept. 11 response is a powerful attribute in the current environment. But he gave voice to something other Republican strategists are saying, which is that if Giuliani were to win the nomination, "this is a different Republican Party than I know."

Giuliani's advisers also challenge the assumption that he is doing well among Republicans because they remember his post-Sept. 11 job performance but know little about his positions on social issues. They believe that many Republicans are aware of both sides of the story and still find him an attractive candidate. Even some strategists in rival campaigns share that view, based on their own analyses.

Another factor may be working in Giuliani's favor. Many big states -- California, New Jersey and Florida among them -- could hold their primaries Feb. 5. If the former mayor survives early tests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, his advisers argue, he will be positioned to do well in the larger states.

Social conservatives make up a significant portion of the GOP primary and caucus electorates in South Carolina and Iowa -- about two-thirds of South Carolina Republican voters oppose abortion, for example. The role of social conservatives is considered to be less decisive in New Hampshire, where low taxes are a bigger priority among GOP voters than abortion.

"I believe the compression [of the nomination] calendar helps us," DuHaime said.

All that assumes that Giuliani's early strength is not a mirage and that he finds a way to transcend his disagreements with conservatives. GOP strategists say he cannot change his positions, as Romney has done in some cases, but Giuliani's advisers believe he can reassure conservatives that he is not bent on a change in party orthodoxy.

On social issues, Giuliani has tried to shift the focus from his positions on abortion and gay rights to his argument that, as president, he would appoint federal judges akin to Supreme Court Justices Antonin Scalia and Samuel A. Alito Jr. His record in New York does not necessarily support that, according to an analysis recently published in the Politico, but a Giuliani adviser said the selection process there is quite different.

Giuliani's having been married three times could hamper his efforts to appeal to culturally conservative voters, although Gingrich faces the same issue if he enters the race. Similarly, Giuliani may have to answer for his past association with former New York police commissioner Bernard B. Kerik, who was forced to withdraw as Bush's nominee to be secretary of homeland security.

Other Republicans will be watching for signs that Giuliani's candidacy is built for the long haul. Right now, he trails McCain and Romney in building a national network of organizations. Giuliani has substantial fundraising appeal, but his first-quarter numbers, due at the end of this month, will be an indicator of whether he can tap his full potential. His skills as a campaigner will undergo continual examination.

"I think that people like him, and likeability is a big, big factor in presidential politics," a senior Republican strategist said. "Right now, I think his numbers reflect that. As you get closer to the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, likeability may give way to vote-determinative issues, like abortion."

Said Ayres: "I don't think there's any question those issues will come into play. The question is, will they get traction?"