Super-Duper Tuesday?

February 22, 2007
Super-Duper Tuesday?
By Carl Leubsdorf

Mardi Gras falls next year on Feb. 5. And the bacchanalian holiday called "Fat Tuesday" may produce the fattest delegate haul in presidential political history.

But like other recent reforms in the complicated nominating process, it may not produce the results its sponsors are hoping for.Two decades ago, Texas helped create Super Tuesday, a March primary day designed to increase Southern influence and ensure a moderate Democratic nominee.

But the day's big winner was Gov. Michael Dukakis, a Massachusetts liberal who won the Texas and Florida primaries, captured the Democratic nomination and that fall lost every Southern state.

Now, Texas is on the verge of joining the other megastates in moving their 2008 primaries to Feb. 5. They hope to regain the influence they've lost in recent years because they voted after the nominees were essentially chosen.

Some two dozen states with more than half of each party's delegates have either switched to Feb. 5 or are considering it, including Texas, California, Florida, New York and Illinois. That would create the equivalent of the first ever national presidential primary and likely decide the nominations nine months before the 2008 election.

These states hope to curb the clout of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary and have visions of becoming major battlegrounds where candidates spend lots of time and money.
The unprecedented grouping of primaries on one day may produce multimillion-dollar media buys in some states. But so many are involved that none will get the attention accorded Iowa and New Hampshire. More likely, they'll see some hastily arranged rallies and ratify the pecking order set in the earlier states.

That's what happened four years ago, when multiple primaries were held on the first Tuesdays of both February and March. Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic winner in both Iowa and New Hampshire, won all but two of the seven states that voted Feb. 3 and all but one of the 10 that picked delegates on March 2.

This time, circumstances are more complicated. For one thing, both parties have contests, and both have lots of candidates.

Besides, it's still possible -- though not likely -- that the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, already scheduled for their earliest dates in history, could be pushed up to this December.

That's because the Democrats voted to insert caucuses in Nevada into the eight-day period between Iowa and New Hampshire to give a role to voters in a Western state with a large number of Hispanic voters and union members. They also opted to let South Carolina vote a week after New Hampshire to add a Southern state with a big African-American population.

But the proposed new calendar has not gone down well in New Hampshire, which fears its status would be undercut by Nevada caucuses three days before its primary. Secretary of State William Gardner, who has authority to set the Granite state's primary date, has delayed doing so amid speculation he'll move it up at least one week from the projected Jan. 22 date.

That, in turn, would force Iowa to move its caucuses up to Jan. 7. And it could trigger other moves.

Iowa and New Hampshire are still likely to perform the same function as in recent years, narrowing the field to the top two or three finishers. If the historical pattern persists, candidates who win both Iowa and New Hampshire will win their party's nomination. If the two states pick different winners, those two could be the top contenders Feb. 5 -- and attract most of the news coverage.

The heavy front-loading of primaries has already prompted plans for an unprecedented number of televised debates this year -- six for Democrats, seven for Republicans, starting with back-to-back encounters in New Hampshire the first week of April.

Of the 13 debates, all but two are planned in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina.

That doesn't mean candidates won't spend some time in Feb. 5 states like Texas. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama plans a stop in Austin on Friday, and most other top candidates in both parties have either been through or are coming soon.

A principal purpose of most of those trips remains fundraising. And though residents of Iowa and New Hampshire can count on seeing the candidates both early and often, the main place most Texans will see them will be on their television screens, regardless of whether the primary is held in early March or early February.

Carl P. Leubsdorf is Washington Bureau chief of The Dallas Morning News. His e-mail address is cleubsdorf@dallasnews.com.

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