Washington Post Poll: Clinton, Giuliani lead primary fields

Post-ABC Poll: Clinton, Giuliani Lead Primary Fields

On the day that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton officially entered the 2008 presidential sweepstakes, a new Washington Post-ABC News survey shows her with a wide lead over her potential Democratic rivals.

Clinton took 41 percent in a hypothetical primary field against 12 other Democrats, far ahead of Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) at 17 percent, former Sen. John Edwards (N.C) at 11 percent and former Vice President Al Gore at 10 percent. The party's 2004 nominee -- Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) -- received 8 percent support. No other candidate crested three percent.

Those numbers are virtually unchanged from a Post-ABC survey in December that showed Clinton at 39 percent, Obama at 17 percent and Edwards at 12 percent.

"This poll confirms Hillary Clinton's early frontrunner status among likely contenders for the Democratic nomination," said Post polling director Jon Cohen. "It also indicates how little the intense media speculation and intrigue about Barack Obama's candidacy over the past month has increased his standing among Democrats nationally."

On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani held a 34 percent to 27 percent lead over Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), with no other potential candidate registering in double digits. Former Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) took nine percent each. Sen. Sam Brownback, who formally entered the race today, stood at one percent in the poll.

The poll was in the field from Jan. 16-19. It tested 561 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and 344 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. The Democratic numbers have a four percent margin of error; the Republican side has a 5 percent margin of error.

The topline information on the two 2008 primary questions is on the next page.

24. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, John Kerry, Al Gore, Wesley Clark, Tom Vilsack, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, or Mike Gravel), for whom would you vote?

NET LEANED VOTE: 1/19/07 12/11/06
Hillary Clinton 41 39
Barack Obama 17 17
John Edwards 11 12
Al Gore 10 10
John Kerry 8 7
Joe Biden 3 2
Wesley Clark 1 1
Bill Richardson 1 2
Dennis Kucinich 1 NA
Chris Dodd * *
Mike Gravel * NA
Tom Vilsack * 1
Other (vol.) 1 *
None of these (vol.) 2 2
Would not vote (vol.) * 1
Evan Bayh NA 1
No opinion 3 4

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone January 16-19, 2007, among a random national sample of 1,000 adults. Overall the results have a three-point error margin; the results for this question have a 4-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.

25. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Chuck Hagel, Tommy Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, George Pataki, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Jim Gilmore, or Ron Paul), for whom would you vote?

NET LEANED VOTE: 1/19/07 12/11/06
Rudy Giuliani 34 34
John McCain 27 26
Mitt Romney 9 5
Newt Gingrich 9 12
George Pataki 2 3
Sam Brownback 1 1
Jim Gilmore 1 NA
Mike Huckabee 1 *
Ron Paul 1 NA
Tom Tancredo 1 *
Tommy Thompson 1 2
Chuck Hagel * *
Duncan Hunter * 1
Other (vol.) * *
None of these (vol.) 2 6
Would not vote (vol.) 1 *
No opinion 9 9

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone January 16-19, 2007, among a random national sample of 1,000 adults. Overall the results have a three-point error margin; the results for this question have a five-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.